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Looking back to October 2007, one can vividly recall a pinnacle moment etched in the memories of countless investorsDuring that time, the A-share market surged to over 6000 points, creating a frenzy among the masses, as it seemed everyone was poised to share the bounty of this capital banquetHowever, 17 years have swiftly elapsed, and the A-share market now appears mired in an unyielding swamp, perpetually straddling around the 3000-point mark without any substantial progressionThrough this tumultuous time, the market has weathered numerous storms, mirroring investors' roller-coaster emotions ranging from initial optimism to mixed sentiments todayWhat has transpired over these long 17 years? Why has the stock market been ensnared in such a prolonged state of malaise?
To begin unraveling this mystery, it is essential to consider the backdrop of the 2007 global financial crisisThis cataclysmic event sent shockwaves through the world economy, leading many nations into a recession
Yet, during these challenging years, China's economy stood out as a beacon of hope, emerging resilient amidst the chaos, much like an oasis in a sprawling desertBetween 2007 and 2012, buoyed by a solid economic foundation, a substantial domestic market, and prudent policy adjustments, China experienced relatively steady and rapid growth, becoming a vital engine of recovery for the global economy.
In stark contrast, the performance of the stock market during this very period was far from impressiveWhile the real economy flourished, providing the capital market with a steady stream of exceptional listed companies and robust earnings support, the stock market failed to rise in tandem as many had anticipated, instead lapsing into a prolonged phase of stagnationIt's critical to understand that plummeting stock markets are not an unavoidable consequence of an economic downturnOver these 17 years, the economic landscape has not been on a constant downward trajectory, with plenty of opportunities and bright spots interspersed along the way.
One cannot simply attribute the persistent underperformance of the stock market to external factors
After all, aside from the three challenging years marked by the pandemic—when the global community grappled with unprecedented difficulties—most of the time during these 17 years, China's economy displayed remarkable resilience and competitivenessThis prompts the question: why have stock markets in developed nations continued to reach new heights while China's market remains stagnant?
Is the issue rooted in a lack of funds? Clearly, this isn’t the caseCurrently, China is experiencing ample liquidity, with residents' savings frequently maintaining high levelsThe banking system's reserve capabilities, combined with active private capital involvement, demonstrate a solid foundation for healthy stock market development.
Analyzing the objective laws of economic cycles, the stock market functions as an economic “barometer.” While it is susceptible to macroeconomic fluctuations, it defies logic to expect it to languish in a subdued state for a continuous span of 17 years
According to the principles of economic cycles, markets ordinarily oscillate between growth and contraction, ultimately transitioning into recovery phases after extended periods of adjustment.
Yet for our stock market, this pivotal transition remains elusiveWhen will it finally break this impasse and welcome genuine transformation?
A closer examination reveals that the shortcomings lie fundamentally within the capital market's institutional framework, particularly in the governance structures of listed companiesMany firms grapple with chaotic internal governance, dominated by major shareholders whose control stifles the voices of minority shareholders, often leading to decisions that fly in the face of broad shareholder interests.
In recent years, China has made notable strides in reforming its registration system, aiming to enhance financing efficiency and facilitate more high-quality enterprises in accessing capital markets
However, this transition has not been without its own challengesSome companies seek to inflate their performance metrics solely to attract investments, only to face disappointing results shortly after their initial public offerings (IPOs), severely undermining investor confidenceThe delisting system remains another hurdle; as it currently lacks robust standards and convoluted processes, allowing “zombie companies” to persist, squandering valuable market resources and disrupting the ecological balance of the stock market.
Some may question the connection between stock market performance and fairness, suggesting that the inherent nature of the market is unequal and future aspirations for fairness are unrealisticHowever, it is crucial to acknowledge a significant truth: for the past 40 years of China’s reform and opening-up, the country has soared under an efficiency-oriented development strategy, significantly improving the living standards of its populace and creating a surge of wealth among many.
Nevertheless, alongside rapid economic growth, inequities such as wealth disparity and the concept of common prosperity have taken center stage in societal discourse
Notably, the stock market manifests the most severe income discrepancy, becoming a focal point for financial inequality in China.
Many investors enter the stock market with hopes of wealth accumulation, only to be met with harsh realities, finding it nearly impossible to yield profits and often facing substantial lossesConversely, the capital raisers appear indifferent to market conditions, akin to wolves ready to feast in both bear and bull markets.
For years, the stock market has been likened to a magic wealth-generating machine that has spawned a myriad of Chinese billionairesUpon successfully completing an IPO, many founders find their wealth skyrocketing, achieving exponential growth in fortune.
On the flip side, ordinary retail investors repeatedly find their hard-earned savings being drained, with many accurately summarizing that the Chinese stock market follows a harsh rule: “one-third profit, one-third break-even, and two-thirds loss.” This stark reality is like a dagger, piercing the hearts of countless investors.
This evident imbalance paints a clear picture: while a majority face devastating losses, leading to a state where the market seems to oscillate between paradise and perdition, it starkly diverges from the equity and balance that investment markets are intended to uphold
Instead, it has devolved into a one-sided profit-seeking arena for issuers and capital raisersHow can we expect the stock market to thrive under such inequities, especially when 70% of investors can't make money? What steps can be taken to resolve this dilemma?
A snapshot of the current state of the A-share market reveals that there are now 5,380 listed companies, with a price-to-earnings ratio that isn’t exorbitantly high compared to some international markets, remaining at a relatively lower level.
Interestingly, the speed of new stock issuances has accelerated, with financing hitting unprecedented levelsThe first batch of 1,000 companies from 1990 to 2001 took 11 years, while the second batch from 2001 to 2011 lasted nearly a decadeThe pace quickened with the third batch taking only 6 years and the fourth a mere 3 years.
Yet, while the market lingers around 3000 points for 17 years, retail investors continue to suffer, and a seemingly endless line of capital raisers persists.
Chinese retail investors bear the dual burden of risk and exploitation, receiving little support from a governance structure that grants them scant authority
Despite regulatory policies claiming to safeguard investors, the harsh truth remains that most retail investors struggle to see any profits.
One could call these investors the “most admirable people” of the new era, trailing only in valor behind the soldiers of the People’s Liberation ArmyThey contribute much yet receive so little in returnHence, achieving common prosperity must also address the fairness in China’s stock market, ensuring that these resilient investors can share in the economic benefits and receive their rightful wealth.
It is imperative we confront the underlying problems within the stock market, approaching reforms through the lenses of institutional frameworks, regulatory policies, and wealth distribution to restore a just and equitable market ecologyBy empowering the stock exchange as a genuine engine for wealth enhancement and economic growth, China’s stock market can escape its current plight and usher in a splendid tomorrow.